Tin Prices Experience Roller Coaster Ride Again, Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Leads to High-Range Stalemate [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on November 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a fluctuating downward trend. By the midday close, SHFE tin prices were clearly under pressure, falling more than 1% from the previous day's settlement price. This movement continued the adjustment trend from the prior trading day, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract settling overnight at 290,940 yuan/mt, down 3,310 points, a decline of 1.12%. From a macro perspective, recent market sentiment fluctuations have intensified significantly, becoming a key factor affecting short-term tin price movements. US Fed officials Logan and Schmid sent strong hawkish signals, explicitly opposing an interest rate cut in December, which cooled market expectations for a shift in the US Fed's monetary policy. This change boosted the US dollar index, subsequently putting pressure on dollar-denominated metal prices. Meanwhile, domestic economic data for October showed mediocre performance, with industrial added value of enterprises above designated size up 4.9% YoY; market demand boost remained insufficient, making it difficult to provide effective support for tin prices.

The overseas market also performed weakly, with the LME tin 3-month futures price retreating in sync. Overnight, LME tin settled at $36,860/mt, down 205 points, a drop of 0.55%. Changes in LME tin inventory and premiums and discounts indicated relatively limited overseas squeeze risks, with market trading pace primarily revolving around SHFE tin.

Spot market trading was sluggish, and the fluctuating upward price movement actually heightened wait-and-see sentiment among end-users. Order situations in east and south China were poor, and downstream enterprises paused their purchase and restocking operations.

Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract encountered significant resistance near previous highs. Although short-term moving averages still provided some support, insufficient market volume coordination made an effective breakthrough difficult. The SHFE tin price is expected to continue hovering at highs in the afternoon session, with resistance above watched near 295,000 yuan/mt and support below seen around the 285,000 yuan/mt level. Investors should closely monitor changes in US Fed policy signals and improvements in downstream actual consumption. For operations, a wait-and-see approach is recommended for now, pending clearer direction.